Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators in March 2016

The Central Asia Prospect Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators 

groseman@centralasiaprospect.com

For Immediate Release, March 26, 2016

CAP KMI in March

Because of an impending revision of the CAP KMI Index, the index number is not available but updates on the four variables used for calculation of the CAP KMI Index follow. The four variables are 1.) monthly GDP growth rate, 2.) changes in deposits at commercial banks, 3.) changes in international reserves at the National Bank (central bank), and 4.) the stability of the som/dollar exchange rate. The updates are from January 2016 data.

GDP growth slowed, with manufacturing, which has been strong in recent readings,  continuing its weakness. Deposits at commercial banks in the country decreased by 3.35 percent from the December level. International reserves at the National Bank in January decreased by 5.14 percent from December. The level of international reserves is remains significantly higher than it was in the pre-crisis years. The som's average exchange rate for the month of December was 75.89 to the dollar (1.3177 cents per som), down just slightly from the previous monthly average of 75.866 soms to the dollar (1.3181 US cents per som). Volatility for the month was low and the som continues to stabilize.

February CAP KMI

The Central Asia Prospect Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators Index

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For Further Information:

Dr. Gary Roseman  

groseman@centralasiaprospect.com

For Immediate Release, February 20, 2016

Nearly steady CAP KMI Index in February

Economic data from Kyrgyzstan continue to show a positive macroeconomic environment in the Central Asian democracy and generate an increase in the Central Asia Prospect Index of Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators (CAP KMI Index). The current reading of the Index is 144.9, down 0.1 from the January 2016 reading (October 2013 = 100), as GDP growth continued at a slow rate, along with a small decrease in banking deposits and a decline in the exchange rate of the som.

The four variables used to calculate the CAP KMI Index are 1.) monthly GDP growth rate, 2.) changes in deposits at commercial banks, 3.) changes in international reserves at the National Bank (central bank), and 4.) the stability of the som/dollar exchange rate.  A composite of these variables showed an improving business environment in Kyrgyzstan at the latest reading, which comes from December 2015 data.  

GDP growth continued, though at a slower rate, with manufacturing, which has been strong in recent readings,  continuing its weakness. Deposits at commercial banks in the country increased by 0.14 percent from the November level. International reserves at the National Bank increased by 2.38 percent from the previous month. The level of international reserves is approaching 40 percent higher than its pre-crisis level. The som's average exchange rate for the month of December was 75.87 to the dollar (1.32 cents per som), down from the previous monthly average of 71.95 soms to the dollar (1.39 US cents per som). Volatility for the month was lower than in the previous month and the som appears to be stabilizing.

CAP KMI Index

The Central Asia Prospect Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators Index

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For Further Information:

Dr. Gary Roseman  

groseman@centralasiaprospect.com

For Immediate Release, January 22, 2016

Small increase in the CAP KMI Index in January

Economic data from Kyrgyzstan continue to show a positive macroeconomic environment in the Central Asian democracy and generate an increase in the Central Asia Prospect Index of Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators (CAP KMI Index). The current reading of the Index is 145, up 0.5 from the December 2015 reading (October 2013 = 100), as GDP growth continued, though at a slow rate, along with increases in banking deposits that balanced the loss in international reserves and the decline in the exchange rate for the som.

The four variables used to calculate the CAP KMI Index are 1.) monthly GDP growth rate, 2.) changes in deposits at commercial banks, 3.) changes in international reserves at the National Bank (central bank), and 4.) the stability of the som/dollar exchange rate.  A composite of these variables showed an improving business environment in Kyrgyzstan at the latest reading, which comes from November 2015 data.  

GDP growth continued, though at a slower rate, with manufacturing, which has been strong in recent readings, slowing considerably. Deposits at commercial banks in the country increased by 5.27 percent from the October level. International reserves at the National Bank decreased by 8.57 percent from the previous month as the som's exchange rate fell. The level of international reserves is 35 percent higher than its highest pre-crisis level in September 2008 but is down 22 percent from its highest level ever, which was in December 2013. The som's average exchange rate for the month of November was 71.95 to the dollar (1.39 cents per som), which is over 4% lower than the previous monthly average of 68.94 soms to the dollar (1.45 US cents per som). Depreciation accelerated beginning in mid-November, increasing the exchange rate's volatility for the month. 

Kazakhstan Stock Exchange in 2015

For the calendar year 2015, the ten companies listed below accounted for 80% of the dollar volume of trades on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange in Almaty. The Kazakhstan Electric Grid Operating Company (KEGC) and KazTransOil (KZTO) together made up 55 percent of the dollar volume of trades on the exchange for year. They are listed below in order of dollar volume of trades for the year.  Eight of the ten shares in the list are in the KASE Index, with the exceptions being BAST (BAST) and the preferred shares of KazMunaiGas (RDGZp).

Kazakhstan Electric Grid Operating Company (KEGC) - power transmission
KazTransOil (KZTO) - oil transport
BAST (BAST) - exploration, mining, and processing of copper
KazMunaiGas preferred shares (RDGZp) - oil and gas exploration and production
KAZ Minerals (GB_KZMS) - mining and processing
Kazakhtelecom (KZTK) - telecommunications
Halyk Savings Bank (HSBK) - banking
BankCenterCredit (CCBN) - banking
KazMunaiGas common shares (RDGZ) - oil and gas exploration and production
Kcell (KCEL) - mobile operator

Average dollar volume per deal for the year ranged from about $2,300 (for Kazakhstan Electric Grid Company and Halyk Savings Bank) to about $6,400 (for KazMunaiGas common shares). For the ten issues, the average dollar amount per trade for the year was about $3,000. The largest number of deals in 2015 was over 16,900 (for Kazakhstan Electric Grid Company) and second place place for number of deals was KazTransOil at 7,710. The other eight issues had an average of about 2,000 trade deals per issue for the year.

The ten most heavily traded issues in the fourth quarter of 2015 were those above with the exception of BankCenterCredit, which was replaced by Bank of America (US_BAC) for the quarter. This issue began trading on the Exchange in May 2014. The top two traded shares in the quarter in dollar volume were, as for the year, Kazakhstan Electric Grid Operating Company and KazTransOil, which together accounted for over 57 percent of the dollar volume of trades from October 1 to December 31. The fourth quarter's ten most heavily traded issues accounted for 84.1 percent of the dollar volume of trading in the quarter. KazMunaiGas common share trades were the largest in average volume for the quarter, at over $5,700 per deal. For the ten most traded issues, dollar volume per trade was about $1,770 for the quarter.

CAP KMI Index up

The Central Asia Prospect Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators Index

News Release

For Further Information:

Dr. Gary Roseman  

groseman@centralasiaprospect.com

For Immediate Release, December 24, 2015

Increase in the CAP KMI Index in December

Economic data from Kyrgyzstan continue to show a positive macroeconomic environment in the Central Asian democracy and generate an increase in the Central Asia Prospect Index of Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators (CAP KMI Index). The current reading of the Index is 144.5, up 4.8 from the November 2015 reading (October 2013 = 100), as GDP growth continued, along with increases in international reserves and banking deposits, and manageable exchange rate for the som.

The four variables used to calculate the CAP KMI Index are 1.) monthly GDP growth rate, 2.) changes in deposits at commercial banks, 3.) changes in international reserves at the National Bank (central bank), and 4.) the stability of the som/dollar exchange rate.  A composite of these variables showed an improving business environment in Kyrgyzstan at the latest reading, which comes from October 2015 data.  

GDP growth continued, though at a slower rate. Deposits at commercial banks in the country increased by 4.81 percent from the September level. International reserves at the National Bank increased by 5.67 percent from the previous month, breaking a string of three months of decreases.  The som depreciated slightly to a monthly average of 68.94 soms to the dollar (1.45 US cents per som) from an average of 67.79 soms to the dollar (1.48 US cents per som) in the previous month. Volatility in the exchange rate decreased and the som recovered from its lows in September. Since January 1, 2015, the som has lost about 15 percent of its value against the dollar, which is not a bad showing, given movements in other currencies against the dollar.

TAPI pipeline work begins

This week in Turkmenistan, construction began on the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline. Turkmenistan has the fourth largest estimated gas reserves and this pipeline will diversity the diversify the customer base for the country's gas exports, which are currently weighted toward China.

CAP KMI Index nearly flat this month

The Central Asia Prospect Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators Index

News Release

For Further Information:

Dr. Gary Roseman  

groseman@centralasiaprospect.com

For Immediate Release, November 21, 2015

Increase in the CAP KMI Index in November

Economic data from Kyrgyzstan continue to show a positive macroeconomic environment in the Central Asian democracy and generate an increase in the Central Asia Prospect Index of Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators (CAP KMI Index). The current reading of the Index is 139.7, up 1.2 from the September 2015 reading (October 2013 = 100), as GDP growth continued, along with increases in international reserves and banking deposits, and manageable exchange rate for the som.

The four variables used to calculate the CAP KMI Index are 1.) monthly GDP growth rate, 2.) changes in deposits at commercial banks, 3.) changes in international reserves at the National Bank (central bank), and 4.) the stability of the som/dollar exchange rate.  A composite of these variables showed an improving business environment in Kyrgyzstan at the latest reading, which comes from September 2015 data.  

GDP growth continued, with another strong showing by manufacturing. Deposits at commercial banks in the country increased by 2.89 percent from the August level. International reserves at the National Bank decreased by 3.24 percent from the previous month, for the third month of decreases, as the som depreciated to a monthly average of 67.79 soms to the dollar (1.48 US cents per som) from an average of 62.77 soms to the dollar (1.59 US cents per som) in August. Volatility in the exchange rate increased from the previous month and the som traded as low as 1.42 cents per som on September 19.