News Release
For Further Information:
Dr. Gary Roseman
groseman@centralasiaprospect.com
For Immediate Release, January 22, 2016
Small increase in the CAP KMI Index in January
Economic data from Kyrgyzstan continue to show a positive macroeconomic environment in the Central Asian democracy and generate an increase in the Central Asia Prospect Index of Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators (CAP KMI Index). The current reading of the Index is 145, up 0.5 from the December 2015 reading (October 2013 = 100), as GDP growth continued, though at a slow rate, along with increases in banking deposits that balanced the loss in international reserves and the decline in the exchange rate for the som.
The four variables used to calculate the CAP KMI Index are 1.) monthly GDP growth rate, 2.) changes in deposits at commercial banks, 3.) changes in international reserves at the National Bank (central bank), and 4.) the stability of the som/dollar exchange rate. A composite of these variables showed an improving business environment in Kyrgyzstan at the latest reading, which comes from November 2015 data.
GDP growth continued, though at a slower rate, with manufacturing, which has been strong in recent readings, slowing considerably. Deposits at commercial banks in the country increased by 5.27 percent from the October level. International reserves at the National Bank decreased by 8.57 percent from the previous month as the som's exchange rate fell. The level of international reserves is 35 percent higher than its highest pre-crisis level in September 2008 but is down 22 percent from its highest level ever, which was in December 2013. The som's average exchange rate for the month of November was 71.95 to the dollar (1.39 cents per som), which is over 4% lower than the previous monthly average of 68.94 soms to the dollar (1.45 US cents per som). Depreciation accelerated beginning in mid-November, increasing the exchange rate's volatility for the month.
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