CAP KMI Index nearly flat this month

The Central Asia Prospect Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators Index

News Release

For Further Information:

Dr. Gary Roseman  

groseman@centralasiaprospect.com

For Immediate Release, November 21, 2015

Increase in the CAP KMI Index in November

Economic data from Kyrgyzstan continue to show a positive macroeconomic environment in the Central Asian democracy and generate an increase in the Central Asia Prospect Index of Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators (CAP KMI Index). The current reading of the Index is 139.7, up 1.2 from the September 2015 reading (October 2013 = 100), as GDP growth continued, along with increases in international reserves and banking deposits, and manageable exchange rate for the som.

The four variables used to calculate the CAP KMI Index are 1.) monthly GDP growth rate, 2.) changes in deposits at commercial banks, 3.) changes in international reserves at the National Bank (central bank), and 4.) the stability of the som/dollar exchange rate.  A composite of these variables showed an improving business environment in Kyrgyzstan at the latest reading, which comes from September 2015 data.  

GDP growth continued, with another strong showing by manufacturing. Deposits at commercial banks in the country increased by 2.89 percent from the August level. International reserves at the National Bank decreased by 3.24 percent from the previous month, for the third month of decreases, as the som depreciated to a monthly average of 67.79 soms to the dollar (1.48 US cents per som) from an average of 62.77 soms to the dollar (1.59 US cents per som) in August. Volatility in the exchange rate increased from the previous month and the som traded as low as 1.42 cents per som on September 19.