CAP KMI Index up

The Central Asia Prospect Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators Index

News Release

For Further Information:

Dr. Gary Roseman  

groseman@centralasiaprospect.com

For Immediate Release, December 24, 2015

Increase in the CAP KMI Index in December

Economic data from Kyrgyzstan continue to show a positive macroeconomic environment in the Central Asian democracy and generate an increase in the Central Asia Prospect Index of Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators (CAP KMI Index). The current reading of the Index is 144.5, up 4.8 from the November 2015 reading (October 2013 = 100), as GDP growth continued, along with increases in international reserves and banking deposits, and manageable exchange rate for the som.

The four variables used to calculate the CAP KMI Index are 1.) monthly GDP growth rate, 2.) changes in deposits at commercial banks, 3.) changes in international reserves at the National Bank (central bank), and 4.) the stability of the som/dollar exchange rate.  A composite of these variables showed an improving business environment in Kyrgyzstan at the latest reading, which comes from October 2015 data.  

GDP growth continued, though at a slower rate. Deposits at commercial banks in the country increased by 4.81 percent from the September level. International reserves at the National Bank increased by 5.67 percent from the previous month, breaking a string of three months of decreases.  The som depreciated slightly to a monthly average of 68.94 soms to the dollar (1.45 US cents per som) from an average of 67.79 soms to the dollar (1.48 US cents per som) in the previous month. Volatility in the exchange rate decreased and the som recovered from its lows in September. Since January 1, 2015, the som has lost about 15 percent of its value against the dollar, which is not a bad showing, given movements in other currencies against the dollar.