February CAP KMI

The Central Asia Prospect Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators Index

News Release

For Further Information:

Dr. Gary Roseman  

groseman@centralasiaprospect.com

For Immediate Release, February 20, 2016

Nearly steady CAP KMI Index in February

Economic data from Kyrgyzstan continue to show a positive macroeconomic environment in the Central Asian democracy and generate an increase in the Central Asia Prospect Index of Kyrgyzstan Macroeconomic Indicators (CAP KMI Index). The current reading of the Index is 144.9, down 0.1 from the January 2016 reading (October 2013 = 100), as GDP growth continued at a slow rate, along with a small decrease in banking deposits and a decline in the exchange rate of the som.

The four variables used to calculate the CAP KMI Index are 1.) monthly GDP growth rate, 2.) changes in deposits at commercial banks, 3.) changes in international reserves at the National Bank (central bank), and 4.) the stability of the som/dollar exchange rate.  A composite of these variables showed an improving business environment in Kyrgyzstan at the latest reading, which comes from December 2015 data.  

GDP growth continued, though at a slower rate, with manufacturing, which has been strong in recent readings,  continuing its weakness. Deposits at commercial banks in the country increased by 0.14 percent from the November level. International reserves at the National Bank increased by 2.38 percent from the previous month. The level of international reserves is approaching 40 percent higher than its pre-crisis level. The som's average exchange rate for the month of December was 75.87 to the dollar (1.32 cents per som), down from the previous monthly average of 71.95 soms to the dollar (1.39 US cents per som). Volatility for the month was lower than in the previous month and the som appears to be stabilizing.